5/21 (Sun) -- Post-Preakness Comments! No Triple Crown this year! :-(
With a slow pace and slow fractions. National Treasure went wire-to-wire to win the second leg of the Triple Crown! Hall of Fame jockey, Johnny Velazquez, was excited to win his first Preakness Stakes! Trainer Bob Baffert and Johnny V go far back and have good relationship with each other. Baffert had mixed feelings: Won the Preakness, but another one of his horses had to euthanized the same day.
Lot of credit goes to trainer Chad Brown and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., who rode Blazing Sevens. Towards the finish line, Blazing Sevens had the slightest lead for a brief moment and National Treasure dug deeper to hold on for a win.
There was a major concern whether Mage would get out of the starting gate cleanly or not. He couldn't afford to get a slow start and fall behind quickly. But, Mage did manage to get out of the gate cleanly, but just didn't have the umphhhh to come out strongly. At the same time, it wasn't fair that Mage was the only Derby horse to enter the Preakness. In earlier years, at least half of the Derby horses entered in the Preakness field. You know, with only two weeks of rest, remaining horses have a bigger edge to win. With only seven horses in the race, post positions didn't matter at all! Bottom line, National Treasure proved to be the BEST! :-)
5/21 (Sun) -- Post Preakness Comments on Kris's selections! I'm glad that my predictions were spot on. As mentioned, National Treasure did use his speed to win the race. Clearly, Mage was tired from the Derby win and also had to battle from the outside. Red Route One finished fourth, but he was a close third. Had it rained, RRO would have performed even far better. Disappointed that Perform didn't perform as well. I did mention that, in an earlier race, Blazing Sevens has similar abilities as Perform and lost to Perform by couple of lengths only. But, Blazing Sevens performed even far better than expected! Most likely, it had a LOT to do with top-notch rider Irad Ortiz Jr.!
5/6 (Sat) -- Another Derby shakeup! A shakeup, for sure! This has to be the first time that five horses were scratched two days before the Derby; especially the Derby favorite. As stated in my book, a scratch of a single horse is a BIG impact on the race; especially if a favorite sratches. Five horses being scratched is even a more detrimental impact! :-(
MAY THE BEST HORSE WIN! Good luck! Compare your selections with mine! :-)
5/5 (Fri) -- Another Derby scratch today :-( Hard to believe that a total of four horses scratched within 2 days of the Derby. So, the 'Also Eligible' horses have been added to the outside posts and remaining horses get to move in without any gaps. The strange part is that, now, only 19 horses are running. Yet, we have horses #21, #22, and #23 running in the race! Wouldn't it be off the wall if one of these horses wins the race? After all, last year, Rich Strike entered the Derby field practically in the last minute (the day before the Derby) and ended up winning the race at 80-1 odds. The big question is: Could we face a similar situation tomorrow?
5/4 (Thurs) -- Major changes in the Derby field! Wow! Two days before the derby, three horses were scratched. Certainly didn't expect that many! I was going to post my Derby analysis and selections on Friday evening! But, due to these major changes, I will post them on Saturday morning instead! Interestingly, there were three different reasons that Practical Move, Lord Miles, and Continuar scratched. Will there be any additional scratches on Friday? Hopefully not.
5/1 (Mon) -- Post positions drawn today! You may love a certain horse for the derby already. But, it is today's Kentucky Derby post position draw that determined how much of an impact there is on the horse that you love! The BIG question: Did your key horse get a good or a difficult post position? One positive news is that sunny skies are predicted for Saturday! On Friday, Kentucky Oaks day, there is a 30% chance of rain.
4/26 (Wed) -- Three absolute critical things to look for in making your Derby selection(s)! Prior to making a decision in making your horse selection(s), you should seriously consider the following factors:
1) Check to see how the weather is!!! This is easy to overlook, but you would be amazed how much of an impact this factor is! There are some horses that do far better on a wet surface than a dry, fast track! A prime example is a horse name Exaggerator. He absolutely LOVED a sloppy/muddy track and won the 2016 Preakness Stakes easily...by four lengths!
2) The Kentucky Derby draw for horses' post positions will take place on Monday, May 1st! For the key horse that you like, did your horse land in a FAVORABLE post position? If your horse got the dreaded post position #1, you would face a more negative situation than horses that landed in remaining post positions. The inside post is tough in that the next few horses could bump your horse badly and lose any key positioning; especially if your horse is slow in getting out of the gate. Your horse could also be stuck on the rail and be blocked from getting out (to a good position). I suppose it could be worse. No horse has ever won from post position #17. Hopefully, your key horse didn't get this post position. On the other hand, will you make history by winning from here?!!! :-) On the other hand, from a Google search, horse #5 won the most Kentucky Derbies! Produced 4 winners since year 2000 and 11% of all winners. Horse numbers 10 and 15 came in second and third successful posts respectively.
3) If the key horse that you love lands in an UNfavorable post position, then, you should consider using your second or third key horse. Hopefully, one of these two landed in a much more favorable post position! Bottom line...Make necessary adjustments by selecting your correct key horse to win the Derby!
4/9 -- One more Derby prep race to go! Have you been paying close attention to the Derby prep races?!!! If not, now is a REALLY good time to start!!! Only the Lexington Stakes race is left! Then, the most prestigious race will be upon us again! It only means more mystery and lot more FUN!
Be sure to look at "Road to the Derby" results and start making your own assessments! Of course, the BIG key is the all important post position of the horses that we like and think will win. Don't forget that the weather will play an integral part as well. Wet conditions will surely make a big difference too. After the post positions are drawn, I will provide final details including horse name, jockey, horse trainer, and odds. More importantly, I will provide my analysis (similar to below) and commentary regarding 'each and every' horse! Stayed tuned right here!
Rating |
Horse # |
Name |
CURLIN FLORIDA DERBY Race 14 -- 4/1/23 |
--- |
--- |
KRIS's TOP PICKS! |
Use my top picks in your Exacta, Triple, and Superfecta bets! As a backup, "box" your bets! |
A+++ |
11 |
FORTE |
I predict that Forte will be totally dominant in this weak field. Just a matter of how many lengths he will win by!!! Hands down...BEST BET OF THE DAY. Wouldn't be surprised if Forte goes off at 1-2 or 1-5 odds! If so, very deserving! |
A |
9 |
CYCLONE MISCHIEF |
It's a tossup between Cyclone and Fort Bragg. Since Cyclone ran against Forte and finished third, I have to give the edge to Cyclone! Also, I like 8-1 morning line odds better than 5-1 odds! :-) |
A |
10 |
FORT BRAGG |
Ran in couple grade 2 races and gets a great rider: Rosario. Speed rating of 100 can't hurt (Cyclone's is 97). |
B+ |
12 |
DUBYUH NELL |
Don't know what happened to him last time and was totally out of it. He did great two races ago in the grade 2 Remsen race and won at 4-1 odds. If he can repeat that performance, he could easily get second. |
C |
- |
Any of remaining long shots |
Any of the remaining long shots can get fourth! |
Value |
Pre-Race Comments |
- |
Couple more Derby preps today. Getting down to the wire for one of the most prestigious races: The Kentucky Derby! |
RESULTS & POST-RACE COMMENTS |
11-4-9-8 |
Forte had to work a little hard this time to win it! Had an outside trip. Maze finished second. Got first and third in my picks. |
Rating |
Horse # |
Name |
ARKANSAS DERBY - Grade 1 Race 12 -- 4/1/23 |
--- |
--- |
KRIS's TOP PICKS! |
Use my top picks in your Exacta, Triple, and Superfecta bets! As a backup, "box" your bets! |
A+ |
6 |
ANGEL OF EMPIRE |
Ran a great race in the Risen Star Stakes and won at 13-1 odds! If he can duplicate that effort, he can get good odds here too! A must use in your exactas and triples! Worth a shot for better prices! |
A |
10 |
RED ROUTE ONE |
A nice closer and finished second in the Remsen. Trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Tyler Gaffalione are a good combo and can get the job done. Should be in the top 3 positions at 3-1 or 4-1 odds. |
A |
8 |
REINCAR NATE |
Another very nice closer. Morning line favorite and Johnny V rides him again. Not too far outside post. Will be interesting if he will go off above or below 5-2 odds. I'm predicting slightly higher odds at 3-1 or 7-2. |
A |
7 |
ROCKET CAN |
Came in second to Forte. Gotta use him in your exactas and triples too. Won Holy Bull grade 3 race at 5-2 odds. He can be in the top 3 spots. |
C |
3 |
HARLOCAP |
Ran against Angel of Empire and finished sixth. With inside post may do slightly better. Good long shot. |
Value |
Pre-Race Comments |
- |
This is a better race than Florida Derby in that it is a more competitive race and can get much higher prices! |
RESULTS & POST-RACE COMMENTS |
6-9-8-7 |
We got the nice win at 5-1 odds. However, a super long shot got second. ONly way to get it was to play with all horses for second. I was correct about selecting the outside horses, but the OTHER outside horse came in. Got first, third, and fourth. 9 killed our exacta. |
Rating |
Horse # |
Name |
LOUISIANA DERBY Race 12 -- 3/25/23 |
--- |
--- |
KRIS's TOP PICKS! |
Use my top picks in your Exacta, Triple, and Superfecta bets! As a backup, "box" your bets! |
A+ |
4 |
Sun Thunder |
In the Risen Star grade 2 race, Sun Thunder finished second (at 16-1 odds) to Angel of Empire He beat Two Phil's (finished third) who is a very good horse. Sun Thunder stretches out to 1-3/16 miles. He is a big closer and the longer distance will suit him more. Will probably be higher than 4-1 odds. |
A+ |
2 |
Instant Coffee |
I'm a big instant coffee drinker! With the inside edge (post #2), he will probably go off at 8-5 odds. Ran a good race against Two Phil's and closed well. Two races ago, he beat Curly Jack (horse #3) by 1-1/2 lengths. In his previous race, he ran in a field of six horses only. Let's see if he can perform as well in double the field size. |
A+ |
9 |
Tapit's Conquest |
Tapit shouldn't be 10-1 morning line odds. He went off at 6-1 odds in his last race against Sun Thunder and Two Phil's. He is also a nice closer and longer distance helps him. He is my long shot of the day and can a good price on him. He could finish in any of the top three positions! Use him in exactas! |
B+ |
8 |
Single Ruler |
He is my other long shot of the day. If you like Tapit's Conquest, you have to like Single Ruler. He went off at 42-1 odds in the last race against Sun Thunder and Two Phil's and finished fifth. He could improve off that race for a decent price! |
B |
6 |
Kingsbarns |
I like Curly Jack on the inside, but CJ didn't do much in the Risen Star race. Considering this, I prefer Kingsbarns at 6-1 morning line odds with trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Flavien Prat; a tough combo. |
Value |
Pre-Race Comments |
- |
As we get closer to the Kentucky Derby, this race will provide us far more insight regarding which horse is improving or declining in performance. With high odds on some of these horses, it's good to do Exacta box or Triple box! |
RESULTS & POST-RACE COMMENTS |
6-5-11-1 |
Wow! They let Kingsbarns run away with it. Kingsbarns went straight to the front and wire-to-wire and won easily by 3 lengths. Obviously, a disappointing performance by Instant Coffee and Sun Thunder. I really expected one of these horses to take it all....longer distance to close. At the same time, I had to give the bigger edge to those horses that had more experience running in grade 1, 2, and 3 races. In most cases, lightly raced horses don't always do well. I guess Todd Pletcher is great at training lightly raced horses so well. I knew Todd and Flavien could do something, but didn't expect them to finish on top. |
Rating |
Horse # |
Name |
JEFF RUBY STEAKS Race 12 -- 3/25/23 |
--- |
--- |
KRIS's TOP PICKS! |
Use my top picks in your Exacta, Triple, and Superfecta bets! As a backup, "box" your bets! |
A+ |
10 |
Two Phil's |
Instead of running in the Louisiana Derby race, looks like the connections decided to run in this race! Two Phil's is a consistent horse that finished 5 out 6 races in the money (top 3 positions). He ran very well against Instant Coffee and Sun Thunder, and Angel of Empire. He gets the nod here. |
A+ |
1 |
Major Dude |
He won easily in Grade 3 Kitten's Joy race at 3-2 odds. He has a good inside post and can come off the pace to win. In the same race, Congruent finished 6th losing by 7 lengths. With a high speed rating of 99, he can easily be in the top 3 spots! |
B |
8 |
Congruent |
After winning a lesser quality race by 3 lengths, he deserves another chance here. Remaining horses haven't run in graded stakes races. |
B |
11 |
Wadsworth |
Trainer Brad Cox may be able to do something from the outside. A semi long shot worth considering. He won last two races at a mile distance. |
B |
4 |
Funtastic Again |
As good as any. Rest of the field doesn't look as great. |
Value |
Pre-Race Comments |
- |
Another good prep race. |
RESULTS & POST-RACE COMMENTS |
10-1-4-11 |
Yay! Hit the exacta solidly. For a $2 Exacta bet, it paid $25.60. Was hoping for long shots for second for higher prices. As mentioned, Two Phil's is a good consistent horse and showed his stuff. Not too surprising and a decent win price. Paid $7.64, $3.90, and $2.92 for $2 Win, Place, and Show bets respectively. Had all 4 horses in my top 4 selections! Pretty good, huh? Congruent finished sixth. |
3/15 -- Four huge Derby prep races on 25th weekend! We got to see how Tapit Trice performed last week! In ten days, we will get to know which other key horses will be running and how well they will get to perform! Most likely, some of the key horses will be those that ran in the earlier Derby prep races!
We have exactly a month left over for the remaining Derby prep races; i.e., The Lexington Stakes will be the final Derby prep race. Afterwards, it will be us, the key decision-makers to determine which horse WE (each of us) think will take the bed of roses!
Rating |
Horse # |
Name |
TAMPA BAY DERBY Race 11 -- 3/11/23 |
--- |
--- |
KRIS's TOP PICKS! |
Use my top picks in your Exacta, Triple, and Superfecta bets! As a backup, "box" your bets! |
A+ |
6 |
Tapit Trice |
Tapit Trice won a mile distance Gulfstream Park allowance race by 5 lengths and he gets the edge here. Since he is stretching out to 1-1/16 miles, a win is NOT a guarantee! Shesterkin (horse #9) came in second in the same race. |
A |
4 |
Groveland |
In a grade 3 Sam F. Davis race, Groveland came in second at 21-1 odds to Litigate at 1-1/16 miles. He only lost by 1-1/4 lengths and ran at 1-1/16 miles! With an inside post, he has a better chance to win. |
A |
2 |
Classic Car Wash |
Classic also ran in the same race as Groveland and finished third at 10-1 odds. He could improve and be neck and neck with Groveland. Mark Casse is a very good trainer. |
A |
11 |
Zydeceaux |
Zy who? Ran in the same Sam F. Davis race and went off at 44-1 odds and finished fifth losing by 3-1/2 lengths only. Zy is my BEST LONG SHOT OF THE DAY! With his speed, he has a legitimate chance to finish in the top three positions. If he does, you got BIGGER bucks coming your way! |
A |
3 |
Classic Legacy |
You can never rule out Bill Mottt's horse! He has as good of a chance as Groveland or Classic Car Wash to come in top three positions. I say that Classic Legacy, Groveland, and Classic Car Wash are equal in talents. Which of these three will fare even better down the road?!!! |
Value |
Pre-Race Comments |
- |
This prep race for the Derby will be interesting to watch and will provide us more insight, for sure! I will be using horses 4 AND 6 on top as one of the bets. |
RESULTS & POST-RACE COMMENTS |
6-2-3-12 |
Considering that Tapit Trice doesn't get out of the starting gate as well, he closed quite well to win at 1-2 odds. Honestly, I don't think Tapit Trice was worth playing at 1-2 odds in such a HUGE field. Even after a win, prices were quite low; with no long shots in the top 3 positions. Seems that he is proving to be a long distance runner; i.e., especially well suited for Belmont Stakes at 1-1/2 miles distance! Meanwhile, can he win both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness...is the BIG question! My prediction wasn't far off...1st and third. Also, I mentioned that Classic Car Wash, Classic Legacy, and Groveland are equivalent and hard to separate which of them will do the best. To my point, Classic Car Wash and Classic Legacy finished second and third!!! Surprised that Groveland ran a poor race and had no impact. |
2/2 -- Pegasus predictions - Regarding any bets in the Pegasus race, notice that I stated you should play Exacta box bets with the horse(s) that you like. Defunded was one of my top two picks, and he came in second. Turns out that my long shot Art Collector ended up winning the race at 33-1 odds and paid hefty prices. So, I did have both horses in my selections! I do have to admit that I didn't expect my long shot to win the race.
Regarding my Show bet predictions, Cafe Society, Transient, Shantisara, and Ivar came in the top 3 spots.
1/28/2023 -- Yay! Here we go with the first major race of 2023! A new fresh start! In Gulfstream Park card, there are huge fields that include the best horses vying for millions of dollars! My advice is to play Exacta BOX bets! If you like a particular horse, be sure to play your key horse front AND back in your exactas; i.e., Exacta Key Box! Include couple long shots too!
Rating |
Horse # |
Name |
Gulfstream Park PEGASUS WORLD CUP INVITATIONAL Race 13 -- 1/28/23 |
--- |
--- |
KRIS's TOP PICKS! |
Use my top picks in your Exacta, Triple, and Superfecta bets! "Box" your bets!! |
A |
1 |
Proxy |
Most likely, Cyberknife will be the favorite. But, Cyberknife prefers a mile race only. Under the guidance of Joel Rosario, Proxy has a good shot from the inside post. Proxy has the highest Beyer speed rating at 112. Rosario can sit off the pace and make his move in the end. Proxy is used to running 1-1/8th miles and finished in the top 3 spots in his last 6 races. Will probably go off at 6-1 odds. |
A |
5 |
Defunded |
Irad is always a tough cookie. Defunded did well in Grade 1 Awesome Again stakes race at 1-1/8 miles. After having been disqualified for couple years, Baffert will try to be a force to be reckoned with this year. |
B++ |
10 |
Cyberknife |
Clearly, Cyberknife has been a very good horse in 2022. He has a tougher post here and will have to prove that he is the best. Again, he prefer a shorter distance. Tough competition here. Not a guarantee! |
B |
7 |
Skippylongstocking |
He ran well in grade 3 races and won easily. Worth a shot for the top 3 positions. He had a nice run in Belmont Stakes. |
C |
6 |
Art Collector |
Art Collector is my long shot! Has lots of speed. Could be up there for second, third., or fourth. |
C |
8 |
Get Her Number |
Another long shot. Hasn't run the distance. But, ran well, but a close second in a mile race. Worth a shot. |
Pre-Race Comments |
Pegasus is always a nice, fresh new start of racing. Get us motivated for a new racing season! |
||
RESULTS/ COMMENTS |
Value |
Value |